Fantasy baseball can over value players beyond their actual "real value", but leave it to "Real Baseball" to over value players as well. Like many Braves fans, I cringed when Frank Wren (GM) signed Derek Lowe to 2-year deal for $30 Million. We knew it was a mistake, but why didn't they?
This year, there are several guys that will cash big checks in 2010 and will not even be rostered in deep NL only leagues. Here's the top15:
- Barry Zito $18,000,000
- Jeff Suppan $12,750,000
- Carlos Silva $12,750,000
- Oliver Perez $12,000,000
- Gary Matthews, Jr. $11,400,000
- Edgar Renteria $10,000,000
- Nate Robertson $10,000,000
- Aaron Cook $9,625,000
- Kyle Lyoshe $9,187,000
- Jamie Moyer $8,000,000
- Christian Guzman $8,000,000
- Brad Penny $7,500,000
- Jason Marquis $7,500,000
- Chris Synder $5,250,000
- Vincent Padillia $5,025,000
I bet half of those guys will be rostered at some point this year in our league (I think a few already are). However, your point is well taken.
ReplyDeleteIn MLB, attendance is just as important as winning. So some teams will sign a guy who is a big name, hoping it appeases the fan base.
Also, most of the pitchers listed above fall into the "innings eater" category. They generally can be counted on to pitch a ton of innings, and keep their teams in the game most of the time. That has more value for a ML team than it does for fantasy -- because they have to have SOMEONE start every fourth or fifth day.
The everyday players you mention above are special cases:
1. Gary Matthews, Jr. -- his contract was based on potential that never played out. He's a fourth outfielder making starter money.
2. Edgar Renteria: -- he's had a productive (although up and down) career at a position where there's not usually much production.
3. Cristian Guzman -- he hit .328 in 2007 and .316 in 2008. He played for a team that didn't really have anyone else hitting. And again, he plays a position (SS) that normally has low production.
Another good point you make is regarding middle relievers. I think if holds was a category that more people tracked, these guys would have big value. Some of these guys appear in 60 or 70 games, with low ERA & WHIP, but don't get any love from real baseball OR fantasy baseball.
These guys had more value in our league when we limited IP. At least the ones who have high K/9 rates were owned. Now, the only ones that are owned are the ones that people are holding as "next in line" closers.